Manchester City’s grip on the Premier League title race loosened dramatically at Hill Dickinson Stadium on Monday night, as Pep Guardiola’s side surrendered a lead in a remarkable 3-3 draw with Everton. A chaotic 13-minute spell saw the visitors concede three goals before salvaging a point through a stunning late Jeremy Doku equaliser — but the dropped points have shifted the destiny of the title firmly into Arsenal’s hands.
The result means leaders Arsenal can now clinch their first league title since 2004 by winning their three remaining fixtures. For City, who are chasing a fifth consecutive Premier League crown, the margin for error has all but disappeared with four games left to play.
This article breaks down exactly what happened at Everton, where the Manchester City title race now stands, the run-ins for both clubs, and what pundits including Thierry Henry, Wayne Rooney and Jamie Carragher are saying about the likely outcome.
What Happened in Manchester City’s 3-3 Draw at Everton
City entered the match as favourites and looked in control after Doku’s fine opener. But a defensive collapse changed the complexion of the night entirely.
Within 13 minutes of the second half, the visitors conceded three goals: a brace from Thierno Barry — one gifted by a Marc Guehi error — and a Jake O’Brien header. Erling Haaland pulled one back almost immediately, before Belgium winger Doku’s 97th-minute strike rescued a point.
Guardiola admitted afterwards: “It’s better than losing. It shows what type of team they are. [The title is] not in our hands. Before it was, now it’s not. We have games left. We will see what happens.”
City fans who had left the stadium had to scramble back as Haaland’s goal gave their side hope, before Doku’s late equaliser earned a point that may yet prove pivotal.
Where the Premier League Title Race Stands Now
After the draw at Everton, the numbers tell a stark story.
- Manchester City’s maximum possible points: 83
- Arsenal’s current points: 76
- Games remaining: City 4, Arsenal 3
- Goal difference advantage: Arsenal +4
Three wins from Arsenal’s last three games will guarantee Mikel Arteta’s side the title. The Gunners’ four-goal edge in goal difference offers an additional cushion should the points totals end level.
As former Gunners striker Henry put it on Sky Sports: “I wouldn’t be thinking ‘we can afford to drop points now’ if I was Arsenal, but it is back in their hands, that is a fact. I am going to stay in my lane, I am not going to celebrate too early. Nothing is done.”
How Arsenal Can Clinch the Premier League Title
There is a realistic scenario in which Arteta’s side could lift the trophy as early as Wednesday, 13 May. It would require:
- Arsenal to beat West Ham on Sunday
- Manchester City to lose to Brentford the day before
- City to then lose to Crystal Palace a few days later
Such a sequence would hand Arsenal the Premier League title with two games to spare. The Gunners’ remaining fixtures are at relegation-threatened West Ham, then home to already-relegated Burnley, before a final-day trip to Crystal Palace — a softer-looking schedule than City’s on paper.
Manchester City’s Run-In Looks Brutal
City face four matches in their fight to retain the trophy. Three are at home — against Brentford, Crystal Palace and Aston Villa, with the Villa match on the final day of the season (24 May). The lone away trip is to in-form Bournemouth, scheduled just three days after the FA Cup final.
City are still chasing a domestic treble. But Arsenal now have a realistic chance of completing a Premier League and Champions League double, with their European semi-final against Atletico Madrid finely poised at 1-1 ahead of Tuesday’s second leg.
Set-Piece Weakness Could Define Manchester City’s Title Race
The defensive frailties on show at Everton are not new. City have now conceded eight goals from corners in the Premier League this season — as many as in their previous two campaigns combined. Arsenal, by contrast, lead the league in scoring from set-pieces.
City have also dropped the joint-most points from winning positions since the turn of the year, alongside Tottenham and Newcastle. January signing Marc Guehi was culpable for the opening goal at Everton, and the City defence was sliced open repeatedly.
Several pundits have noted that the missing experience of Kevin De Bruyne, Ilkay Gundogan and a fully fit Rodri has hurt this version of City — a side that, in the words of one supporter, lacks the “calmness” of Guardiola’s previous title-winning teams.
Pundit Verdict: Why Most Are Backing Arsenal
The expert consensus has shifted decisively towards the Emirates.
- Wayne Rooney predicted on his BBC podcast that Arsenal will win all three remaining league games and lift the title, arguing that Guardiola’s defenders — including Guehi and Antoine Semenyo — have never been tested under this kind of pressure
- Thierry Henry confirmed the race is back in Arsenal’s hands but warned: “I am worried for the West Ham game. Like I was worried for Manchester City’s match today”
- Jamie Carragher drew a parallel with the 2014 title race, recalling how a late equaliser against Sunderland ultimately won City the league that year — suggesting Doku’s strike could yet prove similarly decisive
Rooney added: “It’s Arsenal’s year. And I hope it is for Arteta’s sake. The work he’s put in over the last five years, and then against his former boss, Guardiola — if he goes and wins that title, that is huge for him.”
Counter-Argument: Why Manchester City Aren’t Finished Yet
There are reasons for City supporters to keep believing. Guardiola’s side have a long history of finishing seasons strongly, and the late equaliser at Everton shows the team’s character has not disappeared.
“A really good performance. We played outstanding in the first half. Really, really good,” Guardiola said. “In the second half, they made a step up and we maybe weren’t as aggressive and after [that] we gave away the goal.”
Everton manager David Moyes acknowledged City’s quality: “There is no doubt they are playing better than anyone else in the league.”
Should Arsenal slip up at West Ham — a fixture Henry himself flagged as concerning — the calculus changes overnight. The Gunners’ squad lacks experience of Premier League title pressure, and as Carragher reminded viewers, single moments often define title races.
The Verdict: Will Manchester City Lose the Premier League Title?
The Manchester City title race is now Arsenal’s to lose. Pep Guardiola’s side require a near-perfect run-in and significant help from the Gunners to retain their crown. With Arsenal needing only three wins from West Ham (away), Burnley (home) and Crystal Palace (away), the Premier League trophy looks set to head back to north London for the first time since 2004.
Doku’s late equaliser may yet prove invaluable — Carragher has already drawn parallels with City’s 2014 title-clinching season — but the most likely outcome now is an Arsenal title and a domestic treble bid for City. The chaotic 13 minutes at Everton did not just cost two points. They may have cost a fifth consecutive Premier League crown.
